"Of course they don't like being occupied. I wouldn't like being occupied either."
President George W Bush, April 13 White House press conference
Forget about George W Bush's scripted press conference, where, according to CNN, the president was "quite forceful in rebutting the attacks on his Iraq policy". Forget that Bush admitted to no mistakes in his "war on terror" and complained to a reporter: "You should have submitted that question in writing so I could have prepared." Let's go back to the real world, in Iraq.
"Occupying power needs full-spectrum-dominance Middle East dictator. Must have excellent connections with neo-conservatives in Washington and experience in quelling any kind of dissent by whatever means necessary. Ability to work under pressure essential. Democratic credentials will be provided by the employer. Send detailed CVs to L Paul Bremer, Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA), Green Zone, Baghdad. All correspondence will be kept strictly confidential."
This ad has not been posted - not yet. But it just about sums it all up in terms of American isolation in Iraq, after the Pentagon and the CPA's neo-con policies have managed to lead to the unthinkable: Sunni and Shi'ite united against the occupation in a war of national resistance.
All current mediation efforts in Sunni or Shi'ite areas are being conducted by influential clerics or tribal chiefs - and not the American-appointed Iraqi Governing Council (IGC). Carrying no authority or legitimacy, the IGC has been totally eclipsed: when any of its frightened members says a word, it is to criticize the occupation. Furthermore, even the Americans were forced to admit that the CPA-equipped Iraqi security forces have either disappeared, declined to fight or migrated to the resistance. By the implacable logic of nationalist resistance, any Iraqi now working with any foreigner of any kind runs the risk of being targeted as a collaborator - and subsequently kidnapped or killed. The great majority of foreign civilian aid workers in Iraq are about to leave.
All over the Arab and Muslim world, Sunni Fallujah ("The city of the mosques") and holy Shi'ite Najaf have become the symbols of an increasingly well-organized, broad-based resistance. Paradox is king: the Marines can only "pacify" Fallujah by leveling it; and tough-talking American generals may want to capture "outlaw" Muqtada al-Sadr "dead or alive", while in fact they have been forced to the negotiating table with him.
What's happening in Fallujah and Najaf?
Asia Times Online has learned that Fallujah residents are describing what happened last week as "the new Jenin" - a direct reference to the lethal April 2002 Israeli offensive unleashed against a Palestinian camp. Osama Saleh al-Tikrit, a dentist at Baghdad Hospital, said that at least 600 civilians were killed in Fallujah, and up to 1,500 injured. Dr Abed al-Illah, also a representative of the Iraqi Islamic Party - which is part of the IGC - and a sworn enemy of Saddam, said that "about 350 out of the 600 dead were women and children. One was only eight months old. Many died from simple wounds and could have been saved if they had medical attention." Illah adds that "the Americans claim that all the wounded are fighters and will not let us take them away. Families cannot escape because of their snipers.".
Arab populations - but not their cowed governments - have been busy comparing proconsul L Paul Bremer with Saddam, and talking of a genocide in Fallujah: they all saw the non-stop flow of horrible images on alJazeera (and that's why the Americans want alJazeera out of Fallujah). Alarmingly, neo-cons in Washington are issuing calls to level Fallujah. The neo-con rage centers on the fact that the occupation was caught sleeping as the rebellion in Fallujah quickly moved east from the Euphrates towards Baghdad itself: everybody living in the villages in between who was a former member of the Iraqi army was armed and ready to deliver a blow to the Americans.
The Marines are reopening the siege of Fallujah - with the US running the risk of creating a war crime and provoking a humanitarian disaster. Of the 300,000 people who live in Fallujah, up to 60,000 may have become refugees. Another bloodbath will inevitably breed thousands more Osama bin Ladens or whoever the terrorist-scarecrow-of-the-day is.
Meanwhile in Najaf, feverish mediation between Bremer's CPA and Muqtada's forces continued even after the holy day of Arba'in. Everyone from the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq party to the al-Dawa Party to Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani's son, Ridha, is involved. According to Adnan al-Asadi, the second-in-command of the Shi'ite al-Dawa Party, the mediators are concentrating on a serious possibility: Muqtada's Mahdi Army is not dissolved, but it returns its weapons to the Americans. They have no problems melting back into the local population - guerrilla-style: they may resurface later.
In exchange for the Mahdi Army disarming, the prosecution of Muqtada in connection with the murder of pro-Western Shi'ite cleric Abdul Majid al-Khoei a year ago is turned over to the Iraqi judiciary, but only after the June 30 handover of sovereignty from the US to Iraq. Iraqi police retake control of security in Najaf (Muqtada loyalists control the police in Najaf, anyway). And the Americans remain out of the holy city.
This solution clashes head-on with the rumble emanating from the Green Zone. Bremer rejects everything. He says that Muqtada has three options: he can surrender, he can be arrested, or he can be killed while resisting arrest. There are already 2,500-plus American soldiers around Najaf, backed by tanks and artillery, ready to capture Muqtada "dead or alive".
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